Fringe Fantasy Sports

How Japan’s Home Run King Could Become Fantasy Baseball’s Next Big Thing

With all the hype around Japanese baseball players such as Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki, it’s safe to say that the MLB has reached a new height of Japan mania! 

The most recent phenomenon coming out of the land of the rising sun is a bright young slugger called Munetaka Murakami. Earning the nickname of the “Babe Ruth of Higo”, he’s built a stellar reputation amongst Japanese baseball fans for his slugging prowess.

Beginnings in the NPB

In the NPB, the Japanese equivalent of the MLB, the rookie draft works differently. For the first round selections, a lottery system is used. Once the order is set, teams all select a player. However, more than one team can select the same player. Let’s take the 2023 MLB draft as an example. In the first round, the lottery selected the Pirates as first to draft, then the Nationals and then the Tigers. These three respective teams were chosen in order, Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews and Max Clark. However, if the same draft happened in the NPB, those three teams could have all chosen Paul Skenes as their first choice. A second lottery would then be performed to determine which team gets the player.

This is the scenario Munetaka Murakami found himself in 2017. During the 2017 draft class he and another player, Kōtarō Kiyomiya, were hotly debated as being the most premium players available. So much so that the media started using the slogan “Kiyomiya in the East, Murakami in the West” to describe the war teams embarked on to draft both players.

The Tokyo Yakult Swallows, Yomiuri Giants and the Rakuten Golden Eagles, as an alternative pick after they lost Kōtarō Kiyomiya to the Nippon Ham Fighters, all selected Murakami as their first round pick. Ultimately, the Swallows won the lottery and immediately signed as number 55. During his first press conference as a Swallow, Murakami said : “We’re all starting from the same line in the professional league. With a strong determination, I want to become a player who can be called ‘ the Murakami generation .””

NPB career so far (2018-2024)

Murakami’s career in the NPB reads like a MLB The Show video game achievement page for an overpowered player you’ve created. Outpaced the home run run of Hideki Matsui in his second year of play making him the Central League Rookie of the Year (2019), two time central MVP (2021,2022), youngest Japanese player to achieve a NPB triple crown (2020), four time NPB All-Star (2019, 2021, 2022, 2024), Japan Series champion (2021), two time Central League Home Run Leader winner (2021, 2022), Interleague Play MVP (2022), Hochi Professional Sports Award (2019), three time Best Nine Award winner (2020, 2021, 2022), achieved gold in the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics and achieved gold in the 2023 Miami World Baseball Classic.

To call Murakami dominant is an understatement. Murakami’s most recent season with the Yakult Swallows is nothing short of illustrious, boasting a slash line of .244/.472/.379 for the 2024 season.

His career NPB slash line so far is .272/.395/.543. He’s achieved 640 walks to 997 strikeouts, and 241 home runs before age 25.

Here’s what we can deduce from the stats mentioned above. His batting average is pretty good for our current era where pitchers are only getting better and so batting average has declined a bit. His on base percentage is elite since it suggests that Murakami gets on base almost 40% of the time showing a strong plate discipline and pitch recognition. His .543 slugging shows that he is a power hitter that bats consistently extra base hits. This slash line alone shows that he’s currently a very high-impact offensive player.

The most amazing stat is the number of home runs he’s achieved before the age of 25. For context, before 25, Ken Griffey Jr. had 172, Mike Trout had 168, and Albert Pujols had 160. One of the few in this tier is Alex Rodriguez who had 241 HR before 25.

By his age, Murakami is showing himself to be on a potential hall of fame trajectory for power hitting! The Yakult fans also believe this as they have started to use the nickname “Murakami-sama”. The nickname plays on the Japanese word “kami” (god), referring to his godlike performance combined with the honorific suffix “-sama.” It also became the word of the year in Japan in 2022.

Possible future in the MLB

According to Yahoo Sports Japan, Murakami has stated that 2025 will be his last year in Japan as he will try to get posted in 2026. The most interesting aspect of this whole ordeal is that because he will be 25 years old and has played at least six seasons in a foreign league recognized by the MLB for at least 6 seasons, he won’t have to bend to international bonus pool restrictions. It’s believed he will be pursued by a plethora of teams such as the already Japanese star studded cast of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees who are probably looking for another Hideki Matsui. His contract will probably hit in the 250-300 million dollar range if he follows the example of fellow Japanese professional MLB player Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Implication for dynasty fantasy baseball leagues

If you’re in a dynasty fantasy baseball league like me, Munetaka Murakami should be on your radar once draft comes if you’re looking for a strong catcher or even first baseman with an incredible ability for power hitting. He’s a Tier 1 international prospect and worth a speculative grab. 

Comparables put him at a Kyle Schwarber with more contact – Big-time raw power, but Murakami makes more consistent contact and walks more, a Yordan Alvarez-lite – Same elite lefty power bat, but Murakami won’t be quite as elite on contact vs MLB pitching (at least at first), or a more disciplined Miguel Sano (peak) – Power + patience + Ks (but Sano was always more boom/bust, Murakami is steadier).

Some key concerns one should keep in mind if you’re thinking about drafting him is that the NPB to MLB transition for power hitters usually translates to more strikeouts (think how Seiya Suzuki took time to adjust), and how if he signs with a pitcher-friendly team, it could cap his early power numbers.

If he’s fully confirmed and expected to start every day in 2026, you’re probably looking at a Round 7–9 bat with Round 4–5 upside if he hits the ground running. Draft him like you would a post-hype Seiya Suzuki or 2024 Christian Encarnacion-Strand — potential breakout, minimal speed, but real thump.